Iranians recently went to the polls on June 28 2024 Iran elects new president after the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. The Iran Presidential election offered a choice among four candidates, all loyal to the supreme leader, during a time of increasing public frustration.
Polling stations closed around midnight local time, after several extensions to accommodate voters. Iranian officials had been pushing for high voter turnout.
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Iran Presidential Election Heads to a Runoff
Iran is set for a runoff election in a week’s time on July 05, after reformist lawmaker Masoud Pezeshkian secured a narrow lead over hardline former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, but failed to obtain more than 50% of the votes. This has set the stage for a final showdown to determine the country’s next president.
Low Voter Turnout
This election has witnessed a significantly low voter turnout, which might end up being as low as 40%. This marks a record low for an Iranian presidential election since the 1979 revolution. The scale of the boycott is a clear rebuke to the regime, which had repeatedly urged Iranians to show their commitment to the Islamic Republic by participating in the vote.
For context, the 2001 presidential election had a turnout of 48.8%, with 24.9 million people casting their votes. The current figures fall starkly short of this, highlighting growing public discontent.
Iran Election 2024 Initial Results
The preliminary results show that Pezeshkian received 10.45 million votes, while Jalili garnered 9.47 million. Another leading conservative, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, secured 3.38 million votes. A fourth candidate, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, a former justice minister who ran a wildcard campaign, received only 206,000 votes. In total, 24,735,185 people voted.
As Iran prepares for the runoff, the outcome remains uncertain, but what is clear is that this election reflects significant political and social undercurrents within the country.
Ebrahim Raisi Helicopter Crash
On May 19, 2024 Ebrahim Raisi and seven others, including Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, died in a helicopter crash near the Azerbaijan border due to bad weather.
The cause of the crash is still unclear. Iran’s preliminary investigation ruled out sabotage, such as an explosion, cyberattack, or obvious mechanical failure.
Former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif blamed U.S. sanctions for the crash, saying these measures prevent Iran from getting spare parts or upgrading its old aviation fleet.
In response, U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said America won’t apologize for the sanctions, claiming Iran has used aircraft to “transport equipment to support terrorism.”
Key Iran Election Context
This snap Iran election coincided with escalating regional tensions, including the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran-backed groups like Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Additionally, there has been increased Western pressure on Iran over its nuclear program.
While the Iran election is not expected to bring major policy changes, it could impact the succession of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s 85-year-old supreme leader.
Iran Presidential Election Candidate Selection and Campaign
A council of six scholars and six jurists aligned with Khamenei vetted the candidates, narrowing the field from 80 to 6, with two dropping out later. The prominent hardliners remaining included Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the parliament speaker, and Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator, Mostafa Pourmohammad, a former Iranian chief justice. The sole centrist, Masoud Pezeshkian, supports detente with the West and economic reform but remains faithful to Iran’s theocratic rule.
Voter Turnout and Public Sentiment
Iran Election 2024 voter turnout is crucial, as a higher turnout would benefit the reformist candidate. Many Iranians delayed voting until evening due to it being the weekend and the hot weather. Voter participation has significantly declined over the past four years, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with political and social restrictions.
Supreme Leader Khamenei emphasized the importance of high turnout to bolster the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic. Over 60,000 voting stations were set up across the country, with more than 300 abroad, accommodating over 61 million eligible voters.
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Mixed Reactions
Public reactions to the Iran election were varied. Some voters saw the election as a chance for positive change, while others were skeptical, believing that the president holds limited power in Iran’s political hierarchy.
Election Results and Future Implications
Ballot counting is expected to take two days on June 30, 2024, with initial results possibly coming out sooner. If no candidate wins a majority, a run-off will be held the following Friday.
The Iran new president is unlikely to make significant changes to Iran’s nuclear program or its support for regional militias, as these decisions rest with Khamenei. However, the president can influence domestic policy and the general tone of foreign relations.
All candidates have promised to address Iran’s struggling economy, plagued by mismanagement, corruption, and sanctions reinstated after the U.S. exited the 2015 nuclear deal.
